نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار جمعیت شناسی، گروه علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران.
2 دانشجوی دکتری جمعیت شناسی دانشگاه یزد
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Changing in the size and age structure of the population is the main determinant of the supply of labor force in a community. An increase or decrease in the size of the workforce can significantly affect the country's economic growth. In the present report, the results of the workforce survey, during the period from 2006 to 2016, also the census data on population and housing in 2016 have been used to analyze the status of activity in the population of the country. Then, through different scenarios, population, participation rates and employment rates projection are estimated, and thus supply of active labor in the future is estimated. The overall trend of participation rate for the country during the period from 2006 to 2011 was decreasing and after 2011, it is gradually increasing. In 2016, the participation rate for the whole country was 39%. With the arrival of the graduated of the 60th baby boom, as well as the likelihood of an increase in women's participation rate, it is likely that the participation rate increase in future. In this situation, the only way forward improving the country's economy is rising employment rate. If the government fails to reduce unemployment in policy-making, assuming a stable unemployment rate, the number of unemployed in the future will increase to 5 million. Of courses, this assumption will be achieved with an annual employment of about 500 to 600 thousand people. The government's attempt to reduce unemployment and raise employment rates in the country should be creating at least over 700,000 jobs annually.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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