"Investigating the Short-term and Long-term Effects of the Aging Population on the Shadow Economy in Iran: An ARDL Approach

Authors

1 Department of Economics and Accounting, University of Lorestan, Khorramabad, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Accounting, Lorestan University

10.22034/jeds.2025.67628.1871

Abstract

Introduction: The aging population is one of the major challenges that many countries are facing today. The importance of this phenomenon has arisen due to important reasons, including the risk of reducing the birth rate, and it has not only led to change in the population structure, but also has deep effects on various economic aspects, including the shadow economy. The shadow economy, which includes activities that are carried out outside of the government's official supervision and registration, has become one of the most important topics in economic studies. It should be noted that the investigated period in this research is 1369-1399.
Methodology: In this article, first, in order to investigate the direction of causality between the aging population and the shadow economy, the Granger causality method is used, and then, the ARDL method is used to investigate the significant relationship between variables.
Results: The results of the causality method show an one-way causal relationship from the aging population to the shadow economy. Also, the findings from the estimation of the model indicate that in both the long term and the short term, an increase in the aging population leads to an increase in the shadow economy. So that in the short term, with a one percent increase in the population over 65 years, the shadow economy will increase by 3.475 percent, and in the long term, with a one percent increase in the population over 65 years, the shadow economy will increase by 1.255 percent.
Conclusions: The findings emphasize that there is a positive relationship between the shadow economy and the aging population

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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